Democracy Midyear Update

Voices from the Ground

Earlier this year I wrote about the importance of 2024 for democracy and the trust in democratic institutions worldwide. You can find the blog entry by clicking here. As we approach the middle of the year, it is fair to ask: how are we doing?

The debate about the role of technology in driving increased polarization and its potential to influence election outcomes continues and the fears of widespread societal dislocation have not abated. Micro and hyper-targeting, deepfakes, AI-assisted polling, and AI-driven influence campaigns are areas of concern or opportunity depending on how you look at it. The good news is that the pre-announced catastrophic scenarios are not materializing. Democracy is winning. At a recent event at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Nate Persily, Professor at Stanford Law School, encouraged the audience to discern perception from reality reminding us that “AI panic is itself a democracy problem” and arguing that the media tends to exaggerate the impact of a small number of cases.

So far, we have witnessed elections in the Americas, Africa, Europe, and Asia. In the United States, we are in the midst of the campaign for the upcoming November elections. The news cycle is inescapable, filled with punditry and a plethora of opinions as political operatives attempt to shape the discourse. Global news is inevitably filtered through a local lens. With that in mind, I have reached out to a group of friends around the world asking for their perspectives about local elections and thoughts on election integrity and the role that technology played in them, if any.

A few trends are emerging:

• Coalition Governments on the Rise: In South Africa, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority, necessitating coalition talks to form a government. This reflects a broader trend of dominant parties losing ground, leading to more coalition governments globally, bringing together some "strange bedfellows."

• Historic Milestones for Women in Leadership: Mexico elected its first female president marking a significant milestone for gender equality in politics.

• Youth Participation: The EU elections saw the highest turnout in 30 years, partly due to Germany lowering the voting age to 16, adding 1.5 million potential voters. This highlights an increased effort to engage younger populations in the democratic process.

• Nationalist Gains in Europe: Nationalist parties made significant gains in the EU elections, consolidating a movement towards the center-right. The impact on individual country politics remains uncertain, with the dissolution of the National Assembly in France being a notable immediate consequence.

• Political Shifts in the UK: The UK is poised for a significant political shift, with the Labor Party expected to secure a majority after 14 years of Conservative rule.

• Traditional voting methods remain predominant, with minimal reliance on technology. While extensively leveraged, technology has not played a decisive role in influencing electoral outcomes.

• Acceptance of results: Election The first half of the electoral year has been peaceful with no contested elections.

Here are the voices from the ground:

“The South African elections were declared free and fair by the Electoral Commission, but there was grumbling from some opposition parties about missing votes. South Africa’s ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC) suffered a stunning blow in last week’s elections [May 29], but with no single party gaining an outright majority. The final election results confirmed the ANC’s decline in support to just more than 40 percent of the vote – far less than the absolute majority it had for the past 30 years after bringing about an end to apartheid. The ANC has begun closed-door negotiations with its political opponents to begin talks about forming a coalition government. Parties have a two-week deadline to elect a president, and analysts said the ANC would likely need to concede to an array of demands to bring others on board for a coalition government.”  Gugu Sepamla, South Africa

“The first time a presidential election was contested by two women, resulted in the election of Claudia Sheinbaum, from the ruling party Morena, as the first female president in Mexico and North America. The country had already achieved gender parity in Congress some years ago, stemming from the constitutional framing of parity in the Legislative and then in the Executive. Elections in Mexico are organized by an independent agency and thousands of citizens participate in watching over and counting votes. The process is credible and transparent, and it gave almost 60% percent of votes to Sheinbaum. On the other side, the campaign was very unfair and plagued with illegalities. President López Obrador openly and illegally campaigned for Sheinbaum and used the State’s force and resources to support her. The President-Elect has vowed to continue López Obrador’s path, which includes a severe blow to the Supreme Court, and disappearing autonomous authorities, including the National Electoral Institute that watched over the votes that put López Obrador and now Sheinbaum in power.” Elena Estavillo, Mexico

“The EU election was considered fair and, with a turnout of over 60%, the most popular EU election so far. German law has granted voting rights to Germans as young as 16 which is a two-year drop in the age requirement. This expands the pool of potential voters by roughly 1.5 million. Traditionally, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party performed best with younger voters. In this election, however, the nationalist party in Germany as well as in France gained the most votes compared to 2019. AI was not an issue in the news related to influencing voters. The nationalist party in Germany was very active in social media targeting first and young voters. Technology does not play an important role, at least not in Germany. Ballots are paper sheets, and a pen is fixed on a twine in the booth. This is how we have voted for 150 years, reliable, countable, recountable, and low failure rate.” Matthias Bosch, Germany

“Democracy is currently in full flow here in the UK. After fourteen years of successive Conservative Governments, opinion polls indicate the UK electorate is poised to deliver a clear Labour majority victory on July 4th. This will represent a dramatic turnaround since 2019, as the electorate has become increasingly disillusioned with a combination of Conservative policy failures, unfulfilled commitments, and poor leadership. The Conservatives have variously attempted to limit this reversal by instituting self-serving boundary changes, voter ID, and higher campaign financing limits. None of these are likely to make a material difference to the outcome. The increased use of social media for political marketing and the proliferation of social media news are similarly unlikely to impact the overall result. The latter will most likely represent a shift back to the centre ground of politics in the UK and a rejection both of the hard left, epitomised by the previous Labour Party leadership and the hard right, as the Conservative party’s internal fractures continue to diminish its credibility. Finally, two ‘unknowns’ at this point which reference the quality of democracy in the UK would be voter turnout (a proxy for apathy/indifference, especially among younger people) and the extent to which there will be a robust Opposition to a Labour Government (given the voting regime in the UK perpetuates a two party political system).” Christopher Coles, United Kingdom